The big question on SEO-ers and SAIO-ers minds: What does Google’s search bar expansion and AI-first announcement mean for organic search traffic?
Short answer: it’s too soon to tell, especially given Google also announced a May 2026 core update of its search algorithms last week, too.
But we have some considerations to share and impact premonitions:
Consideration 1: A recent analysis of user behavior when presented with an AI Overview included on the Search Engine Result Page (SERP) found increases in time users spent on the SERP and increased scrolling activity as they reviewed the range of information being presented. The implication is many users needed the time to review all the results on the SERP to confirm the AI Overview and/or decide which result they want to click for more information.
Consideration 2: A McKinsey survey of US consumers showed “research and understand general topics” as the top use of AI by task. “Discover and/or decide on brands, products, or services” was the third-highest use of AI. (We added the italics on “decide” to reinforce the consideration aspect.)
Premonitions: Based on Google search and analytics data we were analyzing before the AI-first announcement, we foresee:
- Impressions in Google Search Results will continue to increase but click-through-rates (CTR) will drop — so Organic Search Traffic volume will be lower than previous averages.
- However, the value of the Organic Search clicks you get (whether from AI Overviews or other traditional Google organic results) will increase as the user has considered your content to be more relevant to their needs. This will result in higher conversion rates and reduce the impact of fewer visits.
Stay tuned for more updates as we develop a clearer picture of the SEO/SAIO search road ahead.
